CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-09-29T22:40:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2013 Oct 01 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 01-Oct 03 2013 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 01-Oct 03 2013
 Oct 01 Oct 02 Oct 03
00-03UT 0 2 5 (G1)
03-06UT 0 2 5 (G1) 
06-09UT 1 2 6 (G2) 
09-12UT 1 3 5 (G1) 
12-15UT 2 3 4 
15-18UT 3 4 3 
18-21UT 3 4 3 
21-00UT 3 5 (G1) 3 
Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on day
two (Oct 02) and G2 (Moderate) or greater geomagnetic storms are
expected on day 3 (Oct 03) as a result of the 29 Sep filament eruption
and associated CME effects.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2013 Oct 01 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 01-Oct 03 2013 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 01-Oct 03 2013
 Oct 01 Oct 02 Oct 03
00-03UT 3 3 5 (G1)
03-06UT 2 3 4 
06-09UT 2 3 4 
09-12UT 2 4 4 
12-15UT 3 5 (G1) 4 
15-18UT 3 5 (G1) 3 
18-21UT 3 4 2 
21-00UT 3 4 1 
Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on days
two and three (02 Oct - 03 Oct) as a result of the 29 Sep filament
eruption and associated CME effects.
--
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Oct 01 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. A single B-class flare occurred. Region
1855 (S13E16, Bxo/beta) showed gradual spot growth during the period.
The remaining two spotted regions were either stable or decaying. There
have been no additional Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME)
since the one associated with yesterday's filament eruption.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low during the period (Oct 1 - 3)
with a chance for a C-class flare.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
A greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit occurred in
the wake of yesterday's filament eruption. The event reached the S1
(Minor - 10 pfu) threshold at 30/0505 UTC. The event reached the S2
(Moderate - 100 pfu) threshold at 30/1420 UTC. The S2-level event was in
progress at the time of this discussion. Thus far, the peak greater than
10 MeV flux for this event was 182 pfu at 30/2005 UTC. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate
levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) levels during Oct. 1 - 2, then
decrease to S1 levels on Oct. 3 as the proton event begins to gradually
decay. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal
to high levels during Oct. 1 - 3.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
ACE EPAM data showed a gradual increase in particle fluxes on all
channels, likely indicative of the approach of the CME associated with
yesterday's filament eruption. Other ACE parameters indicated nominal
solar wind conditions. Speed was low in the 235 to 279 km/s range.
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt ranged from 1 to 5 nT, while IMF
Bz was variable in the 4/-4 nT range. IMF Phi data indicated a variable
solar sector until approximately 30/0400 UTC, then settled into a
negative-polarity (Toward) solar sector for the rest of the period.
.Forecast...
An increase in wind speed is possible on Oct.1 due to a weak recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. The CME associated with yesterday's
filament eruption is expected to arrive around midday on Oct. 2.
Increases in speed, density, and IMF Bt; along with increased IMF Bz
variability, are expected with the CME arrival. Enlil model output
indicates peak speeds around 500 km/s associated with the CME passage.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
Oct. 1 due to possible coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Field
activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels (G1
- Minor) during Oct. 2 - 3 due to a CME passage associated with
yesterday's filament eruption.
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